City-Killer Asteroid Spares Earth, Sets Sights on the Moon—NASA Reveals New Impact Odds

Astronomers Sound the Alarm: “City Killer” Asteroid Now Targets the Moon—Here’s What We Know for 2025

NASA confirms building-sized asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer threatens Earth—but its new trajectory could punch a crater in the Moon.

A massive asteroid dubbed a “city killer,” once feared to potentially collide with the Earth, is now turning NASA’s attention to an unexpected new target—the Moon. Asteroid 2024 YR4, about the size of a 20-story building, originally sent shockwaves across the globe in late 2024 when preliminary data suggested it had a rare 3% chance of slamming into our planet in 2032.

Now, after months of high-precision tracking using the cutting-edge James Webb Space Telescope, astronomers have refined those frightening odds. Relief swept the scientific community as NASA slashed the chance of an Earth impact to virtually zero. But with new calculations, the risk to the Moon quietly edged up, putting lunar scientists on high alert.

Is the Asteroid Still Dangerous to Earth?

Absolutely not, say expert analysts at NASA. Updated data, including a 20% higher accuracy in orbital predictions, show that asteroid 2024 YR4 will safely bypass Earth on December 22, 2032. For those worried about a disaster movie scenario, NASA confirms our planet is out of harm’s way—at least from this celestial intruder.

Could the Asteroid Really Hit the Moon?

While the odds are still slim, they’ve ticked up to 4.3%. That means more than a 95% likelihood it will miss entirely. Still, scientists at the European Space Agency point out that an impact would be historic—one of the largest witnessed on the lunar surface in modern times. Such a crash could offer unprecedented insight into planetary defense and cosmic impacts.

What Makes Asteroid 2024 YR4 Special?

This isn’t just any space rock. Observations using infrared sensors show YR4 is rich in silicates, hinting at origins in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Researchers believe gravitational nudges from Jupiter sent it spiraling toward a near-Earth orbit. They also suspect it may be a fragment from a much larger “rubble pile” asteroid—adding another cosmic puzzle piece to our solar system’s story.

How Do Scientists Track and Study Asteroids Like This?

Astronomers combine ground-based observatories—like the Gemini South telescope in Chile—with advanced space telescopes like NASA’s James Webb. By monitoring how asteroids reflect sunlight and emit heat, they learn about their composition, speed, and, most critically, orbital path.

2024 YR4 is currently out of observational reach, but NASA aims to reacquire it with upcoming telescope windows in 2026. Each pass offers a fresh shot at refining its trajectory and understanding the likelihood of a lunar collision.

What Would Happen If the Asteroid Struck the Moon?

If YR4 impacts, it would blast a new crater, scattering lunar dust and rock—possibly visible from advanced telescopes on Earth. Scientists could examine the event in real time, using it as a trial run for future planetary defense strategies to protect both Earth and the Moon from larger threats.

What’s Next—and Should We Be Concerned?

With no risk to Earth, astronomers are relatively calm—but remain vigilant. NASA and the ESA plan further observations, hoping a potential Moon impact could serve as a scientific opportunity. Their findings will advance our understanding of near-Earth objects—a major focus for agencies like ESA and JWST.

Stay Informed—Join the Global Watch on Space Hazards!

• ✅ Earth is safe from 2024 YR4 in 2032
• ✅ Moon faces a small (4.3%) impact risk
• ✅ Scientists will track next approach in 2026 with JWST
• ✅ Future lunar impact could provide crucial research data
• ✅ Follow NASA and ESA for real-time asteroid updates